Who Is Most Likely to Win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, per the Odds?

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The NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year race has become one of the league’s most closely watched awards markets, especially as first-year players continue to make immediate impacts.

Recent winners have set a high standard for incoming rookies. In 2025, wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan captured the award after emerging as Carolina’s top receiving threat, while Garrett Wilson won in 2022 and Ja’Marr Chase delivered one of the greatest rookie seasons by a receiver in 2021. Quarterbacks have also enjoyed significant success, with C.J. Stroud claiming the honor in 2023 and helping reinforce the idea that rookie signal-callers often have the clearest path to the award.

As sportsbooks release their early numbers for the 2026 season, Arizona Cardinals running back Jeremiyah Love sits atop most betting boards. The former Notre Dame star was selected third overall in April’s NFL Draft, becoming the highest-drafted running back since Saquon Barkley was taken second overall in 2018.

Love rushed for 2,768 yards and 35 touchdowns during his college career while adding another 567 receiving yards, making him one of the most complete running back prospects to enter the league in years.

Current NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

Why Love and Mendoza Are Separating From the Field

Love enters the season as the betting favorite largely because of projected volume. Arizona invested the No. 3 overall pick in him and is expected to build a significant portion of its offense around the rookie.

However, history suggests the path will not be easy. Despite several productive rookie runners over the past decade, no running back has won Offensive Rookie of the Year since Barkley in 2018. Voters have increasingly favored quarterbacks and wide receivers, particularly those producing big plays in pass-heavy offenses.

The biggest threat to Love is Raiders quarterback Fernando Mendoza. The No. 1 overall pick enters the NFL after one of the most decorated college seasons in recent memory. Mendoza won the 2025 Heisman Trophy, led Indiana to a national championship, and was named Offensive MVP of the College Football Playoff National Championship Game before becoming the first overall selection in the 2026 draft.

If he earns the starting job early and posts respectable passing numbers, voters could naturally gravitate toward the quarterback position.

Top Non-Quarterback Challengers

Among the non-quarterback challengers, Tennessee receiver Carnell Tate may offer the strongest value. Recent history favors wide receivers, with McMillan’s victory in 2025 demonstrating that elite production at the position can outweigh quarterback narratives.

Tate was selected fourth overall and is expected to command a major target share immediately. Similarly, Saints receiver Jordyn Tyson has generated considerable buzz because of his big-play ability and opportunity in New Orleans’ offense.

Sleeper Candidates to Watch

Bettors searching for longer odds should keep an eye on Philadelphia rookie Makai Lemon. His stock has risen following offseason roster changes that could create a larger role in the Eagles’ passing attack.

Seattle running back Jadarian Price is another sleeper candidate, particularly if he secures a featured workload early in the season.

Final Outlook

At this stage, the award appears to be a two-player race between Jeremiyah Love and Fernando Mendoza.

Love has the advantage of entering Week 1 as the focal point of Arizona’s rushing attack, while Mendoza benefits from playing the position that has dominated modern NFL award voting.

With training camp still ahead and depth charts yet to be finalized, odds will continue to move throughout the summer. For now, however, Love remains the favorite to become the NFL’s next Offensive Rookie of the Year, with Mendoza, Tate and Tyson positioned as his primary challengers heading into the 2026 season.